What's Holding You Back?

I got a great email from a 1 on 1 student this morning. He and I were trading emails about why he was not successful recently in his trades. And he then told me the coolest thing.

Here is what he said:

"I'm starting to think that the results are better if you trade the patterns religiously and follow signals (break and close) regardless of if they seem to tell you, say, to go short just above another support level. I guess if you don't, the system just becomes too discretionary and you will always find an 'excuse' not to trade. Is this a fair comment?"

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Posted by Rob at 08:08 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Housing Boom to End in the U.S.?

The housing numbers are all the buzz on trading floors. This morning traders are eagerly awaiting the sales numbers for new homes in the U.S. Usually this is not a huge number -- but lately it has taken on more and more importance. Here's why:

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Posted by Rob at 09:39 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


FOMC: Rate Hikes to End?

I just finished reading the FOMC minutes from the November 1 meeting, which are available here. It appears that some Fed Governors are fearful that the rate hikes may go too far. That seems quite dovish, when we all had the opinion that these rate hikes might last forever. To be honest, the Fed sort of lulled us all into complacency and traders (especially the big money traders) were betting on rate hikes as high as 5% and perhaps 5.5%. That seems less likely now.

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Posted by Rob at 02:43 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Kathy Lien's New Book

In short, it's the best book on currency trading available. You can pre-order the book at the link below, and it's worth every pip you pay for it:

Kathy kindly gave me an advance copy yesterday, and I've been amazed. Here is why I think it's worth owning the book:

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Posted by Rob at 12:09 PM | | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Cracks in your forex strategy?

Are there cracks in your trading strategy?

crack.jpg

Are you taking big trades when you have a small account?

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Posted by Rob at 11:59 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


ECB Rate Hike Coming?

Claude Trichet, exotic dancer and European Central Bank President, signaled today that this time (really) he means business about raising the eurozone interest rate 25 basis points to 2.25%. Here is a recent photo of him, taken when he spontaneously broke out into a 50-Cent rap cover at a recent interest rate meeting.

307trichet.jpg

This morning, he said:

“After two years and a half of maintaining interest rates at a level that is exceptionally and historically low, I consider that the Governing Council is ready to take the decision to move interest rates and modestly augment the present level of intervention rates in order to take into account the level of risks to price stability.”

The prospect of a rate hike sent the EUR flying upward -- see the chart below:

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Posted by Rob at 12:24 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


More on RefcoFX

You probably didn't know that FXCM posted gross revenue of $154,000,000 (yes, million) last year. How much profit they made on that revenue is another story. But money like that puts them in a position to be able to buy the assets of RefcoFX, with whom FXCM has had a recent partnership.

logo-refcofx.gif

The deal is still not done, but when FXCM buys the RefcoFX customer base, it does bring up the following thoughts:

Continue reading "More on RefcoFX" »

Posted by Rob at 05:37 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Refco FX to sell assets to FXCM

Reuters reports that it is selling its retail FX assets (meaning your account if you have an account at Refco) to FXCM for about $110 Mllion. Account balances will be transferred, positions will be intact. That's the plan.

There are two big things that we learn from this experience.

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Posted by Rob at 08:18 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Dow Jones Trendline Update

The Dow Jones Industrial Average seemed this week that it was prime and ready for a trendline wacking. Here is the chart (click on it to make it bigger):

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Posted by Rob at 03:24 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Things Luke Skywalker would say to you if you lost 300 pips on one trade.

1. Did you have the blast shield down?
2. You are an idiot.
3. She’s rich. Rich, powerful.
4. How did my father die?
5. I don't like you either. You just watch yourself. We're wanted men. I have the death sentence on twelve systems.

Continue reading "Things Luke Skywalker would say to you if you lost 300 pips on one trade." »

Posted by Rob at 07:54 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Bad US Trade = Good US Dollar?

The US Trade Deficit widened 11% to $66 Billion in September. So why did the US Dollar make a bit run upward right after the report was released? Here is the chart -- look at how the deficit keeps rising. Click on the chart to make it bigger.

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Posted by Rob at 04:28 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


62 EMA still working? Steffan speaks out.

Steffan Daffentrouser asked a great question in the fxstreet chat this morning. He asked: Is the 62 EMA still working ok on the 15 minute chart? And my answer is that yes, it is true, Steffan Daffentrouser is the best name ever and I am going to legally change my name (it was actually the name of the first European Central Bank president nominee, but he was never confirmed when it was revealed that he was actually a woman. Click here to see a photo of her).

Here is a chart that shows the 62 EMA on the 15 min GBP/USD from this morning. Cilck on the chart to make it bigger.

Continue reading "62 EMA still working? Steffan speaks out." »

Posted by Rob at 07:58 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


5/13/62 Completely Revised

I just re-wrote the 5/13/62 ebook -- completely revised and updated. And funnier, too. Today I will be hosting a chat on fxstreet.com about the updated ebook.

The revision was necessary, so that I could accurately reflect how I think the 62 Exponential Moving Average can be used in trading. I think you'll like the update. Click here to get the ebook.

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Posted by Rob at 07:40 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Oil update

The value of the CAD, as I talked about today, is heavily influenced by the price of oil and by the suspension of hockey, and by the popularity of 5-pin bowling, which apparently was invented in Canada and is the most boring sport in the world after fishing.

Below is a weekly Light Crude chart. Click on it to make it bigger.

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Posted by Rob at 11:33 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Canucks, Oil, Hockey, and the Loonie

Oil could be taking a dip. Canada's government is in a bit of disarray right now (with a possible no confidence vote for the government on the horizon). Hockey is back, so Canadians will be paying less attention to the economy and more attention to assists and GPG. This means that the CAD could weaken, despite the fact that Canada's short term interest rate is on the rise. Short term problems for the CAD means it could continue to weaken. Long term, as long as the interest rate continues to rise (and it should), the CAD will remain somewhat stable. But in the near term, it's poised to give back some gains.

Here is a chart that explains it all:

Continue reading "Canucks, Oil, Hockey, and the Loonie" »

Posted by Rob at 07:27 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Gold update

As you know, I've been watching gold lately. The chart below shows that we're getting a nice correction right now. The blue trendline is going to be support -- but I think that Gold can break through that support and fall all the way to the 200-day Simple Moving Average. I'm not buying until that happens. Click on the image below for a larger version.

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There are two reasons I think Gold can get down to 430 or so.

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Posted by Rob at 03:58 PM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


Got Zloty?

There are a zillion ways to trade. We overlook a lot of opportunities to focus on pairs that no one else is watching -- or at least very few people are watching. If I could show you the research from an investment bank, you would see them preparing trade ideas for some of the more exotic currencies: the zloty, the NOK, the rand. And that's just for starters.

Continue reading "Got Zloty?" »

Posted by Rob at 11:53 AM | | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0) ..............................................................................................................................................


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