Here are some thoughts I had today. Many more of these thoughts will be coming in the next 2 weeks.
1. Traders don't know what the crap to do. There is a lot of confusion in London and on Wall Street about "where next" with the USD. Rising interest rates? Maybe. Rising Trade Deficit? Surely. This could be a choppy market for the next 1-2 months.
2. Oil is going to fall to at least $50 per barrel. That's my opinion. I think this will reduce inflationary pressures in the US, and it will have some ancillary effects:
a) It will drive down the value of the CAD versus all currencies, and especially the JPY, which is experiencing a resurgence.
b) It may bring a sooner end to US rate hikes. This will put all the attention on the US deficit.
3. Oil could fall as low as $40 per barrel. I have no idea what would happen then.
4. I could be wrong about oil. If I am wrong about oil, then scratch all of #2.
5. I don't think I am wrong about oil.
