We did a video today and here's a look:
http://www.refcofx.com/email-us-2.htm
The above link is about two weeks old, but many people still haven't seen it. A kind friend sent me the link today and asked me what I thought. Well, I think that, given the present circumstances, it is the very best that we could expect or hope for. Consider for a moment that it's possible for all of the RefcoFX accounts to be shut off, and that money lost, forever. Anything is better than that.
Could the outcome be more favorable? Certainly. FXCM offered to buy the assets and the deal fell through. That deal would have given traders access to their money more quickly. As it stands, it's good to know that we're near a conclusion on this sad situation.
Friday we have another jobs report. It’s been a huge mover in the past year, and it consistently has produced single-direction moves in the GBP/USD after its release, with very few exceptions.
In the chart below, I show the expected, actual, and revised numbers from May 2004-May 2006 for the Non Farm Payroll report. It’s interesting to note that on average, over this period of time, the actual numbers are (on average) 49,000 worse than expected. 18 of 24 months in this sample showed an actual number lower than the number we expected.
Here’s a small version of the chart:
Now take into account that we have the ADP jobs report (a study produced by the payroll giant) that says we might have as many as 350,000 jobs created last month – and economists who expect a gain of 190,000 – and we have the makings of a possibly disappointing report.
The best thing that you can do for yourself this Friday is to reduce the size of your trades, to make sure that you don't lose a lot of money in the event of a huge whipsaw, and to never plan to get rich in one day.
In my new book, Adventures of a Currency Trader, which should be released in early 2007, the lead character in the book employs the strategy of scaling up in order to reap fairly significant profits from a trade -- and I can't wait to share that story with you. I wish it didn't take so long to publish a book!
Anyway, I am a huge fan of increasing position size when you are right. This doesn't mean that I do it all the time. It doesn't mean that you should do it right now. But I think Boris has written an article worth reading. Here's the link so you can read it for yourself:
Is Pressing The Trade Just Pressing Your Luck? by Boris Schlossberg
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