Double-Decker Response

I received a very thoughtful and important response to my double-decker post a few days ago. It's one that I believe is important enough to post in the main section. It's from a friend of mine, a full time trader who makes a living from his pips. This is what he says in response to our double-decker friend:

I would like to add my thoughts to this dialog with the understanding that we have never met and by no means do I mean you any harm or bad feelings.

I went through a similar phase some time ago and came to the realization that was afraid to break out of my self imposed comfort zone.

I grew quite attached to having a cretain amount of struggle in my life in many areas. It allowed me to be a martyr of sorts. I could give wonderful speeches about how tough the world was and how I was fighting back with all my might. I grew to love the conflicting issues in my life - and never took the time to accept the fact that I was where I was because of MY decision to stay there.

Trading well and having some financial success from it could make many of these self imposed ills go away. If these issues were to suddenly vanish I could no longer be the "warrior" I convinced my self I was and my self imposed comfort zone (which was actually very UNcomfortable) would be gone. If the struggles in my life were gone what would I do with myself? I honestly didn't know! I had never tried to really see myself in a stress free existance and embrace the freedom it provided.

At some point I had to decide how I wanted to REALLY LIVE and ask my self if my current course of action would get me there.

I realized that I had to move in a new direction and create NEW comfort zones if I wanted my life to change. That's when trading took on a new importance in my life.

I stopped loking at the "pie in the sky" returns many of the book/course sellers entice you with and began to ask if I could take small steps to get myself in tune with the market and work for consistancy rather than occaisonal big wins.

I took a small household bill and made it a sort of game to see if i could just pay that one bill via my trading efforts. It didn't require a large amount of pips bit it did require that spend the time needed with the charts to make the pips necessary. It gave me the needed focus without the added stress of of thinking that I "had" to succeed. If I didn't make the pips needed my light bill would have been paid anyway.

What it did was give me a sort of interesting hobby that I felt had the possibility of turning into something really big.

As time went on my trading (and sttitude) got better and now I am trading fulltime and having fun doing it.

Decide to change

Let go of your need to have self imposed pain and conflict. Every second of your life is an oppourtunity to decide how you want to live that day. Choose the things that ring true to you.

Don't surrender your dream without a fight. And I mean a knock down drag out spitting, biting, kicking head punching affair. Your future will depend on you willingness to defend you goals. You don't have to give up being the warrior I mentioned in the beginning - you just have to give him something REAL and MEANINFUL to go to war for.

Your dreams and goals as a trader would be a great place to start.

Take small steps - you didn't get into this mess overnight - don't expect to get out overnight.

Look at it as an experiment rather than a do or die situation.

Change your beliefs about the market.

The market will absolutely give you whatever YOU believe it will. Become friends with the market and you'll see what I mean.

I hope this helps and I wish you well.

Continue reading "Double-Decker Response" »

On the Beat for Pips

I have the honor to work with a student right now who is also a police officer in one of the largest cities in the world. He has a dangerous job. I in no way want in this post to compare the importance of the job of police officer with the importance of being a trader (one job saves lives, the other saves pips -- no comparison).

But here are some thoughts that I offered to my friend today, as he starts his journey to be a trader.

You are in a great position to accept any shift in thinking that is required for you to be successful at trading. I would not be surprised if your success in trading starts to have an effect on your perspective on the street as an officer. Trading well will shift the way you look at many, many things.

1. Do you ever wonder why a person who has done something wrong on the street doesn't want to admit it at first? Why don't they just come clean? I suspect that can be frustrating. Well, that bad dude is like a bad trader that won't admit they made a bad trade -- and so they just keep letting it get worse and worse.

2. Do you believe that work as an officer can be chaotic? But at the same time, you've pretty much seen it all? It's that strange dichotomy that exists in trading, too. The market is chaos, but once you dive in and start to understand the underlying patterns, there is not much that surprises you. Let me put it another way:

3. Do you feel that on a rough evening as an officer, you just have to "go with the flow," that to fight the negative stuff coming your way is just going to be counter-productive? Well, it's the same in trading. You don't fight the market. You put yourself in a position to stand back and take advantage of what comes your way, or you make sure that you stay out of the way of the bad stuff (this is where you have a choice in trading that you don't as an officer).

4. Would it be fair to say that the best officers understand the "mental" side, the "psychological" side of their jobs just as much as they are in good physical shape? They have both mental and physical strength? Well, it's the same for trading. You need the mental side AND the skill set. You can imagine that the dumbest guy who is in great shape can never be a police officer. Well, the dumbest guy with the greatest trading system in the world is not going to make any money. You can imagine, too, that there have been some great officers and detectives who were not necessarily Jack LaLane or Mr. Universe. Well, that's the same for the best traders: they have a valid mental perspective and that can compensate for the fact that they might not know some "secret" trading system, or some amazing skill.

Continue reading "On the Beat for Pips" »

Double-Decker Thoughts

I get quite a bit of criticism sometimes for repeating advice that some people view as "obvious." The longer I am in the business of trading and teaching, I realize that the most important advice is the "obvious" advice because it's the advice that the least amount of people actually pay attention to. Tonight I received an insightful email from a good friend who is still on his journey to become a successful trader. Here is what he wrote to me. I sincerely appreciate that he gave me permission to post his thoughts here:

As I was coming back from my night job, I was on the top deck of the bus slumbering. I suddenly woke up with the fear that i had missed my stop, but i did not. Then the thought creep into my mind again - forex. I had a kind of dialogue within myself.

He: Hey! Tell me for how long are you going to do this.
Me: What do you mean?
He: Doing what you don't like, not having enought time to rest, going home at the odd time, not having enough food and no cloth on your back!
Me: Well i don't really know. I have tried to change this buy doing forex.
He: But do you ever succeed?
Me: NO!
He: Why?
Me: It's not because I don't have a good system; I am not discipline.
He: Why are you not discipline.
Me: I don't want to talk about it!
He: If truely you don't like what you are doing then you will follow the rule of playing the forex game successfully. If not, you will keep doing the same thing the same way and achieving the same result.
Me: Whatever!

My response to the questions i received through the dialog shows that i am fretting over my failure. I keep thinking, why am i not successful. Why do I put aside my plans and do something else? Why do i keep making money on demo and not in live account? When i do a backtesting, i don't look at the news, why do i look at the news when it's time to trade this system live? Why can't i just listen to my inner mind? Why do i refuse to take little money off the table. Why don't i stick to my plan?

Have you ever asked yourself these questions?

Continue reading "Double-Decker Thoughts" »

Knowledge and Confusion

I've learned for myself, and seen it in many others, that the more they or I learn and then try to apply, the more confused we can become.

To me, this doesn't mean that we have to stop learning or reading books or investigating new methods. What it does mean is that it's important to separate the learning process from the application of the learning. I make the analogy that trying to follow multiple trading systems can be like trying to drive a car with multiple steering wheels. It just won't work. It becomes confusing and it's overcomplicated.

The statemens about stepping back and having an open mind, and about you having to learn for yourself, that was quoted in this thread, are so very true in my experience. Through your own observations, and open-minded (so well put!) interaction with new ideas, and reading, etc, you are going to get an idea of what indicators or methods make the most sense to you.

And then you have to do more than observe -- of course this is my opinion and I am excited to hear what others have to say -- then you have to test the methods that you learn. You go back in time and you apply what you have learned and you prove whether it works or not. You learn whether the method experiences drawdowns that are unnacceptable, or whether it has a great win percentage but a bad average winner to loser size, or whether it requires you to keep an unrealistic schedule that negatively affects your health. This process of learning, making a hypothesis, and then testing that hypothesis, can take a long time. That's why so many traders fail, I think: they realize how much effort can go into "making a system your own" and instead they just start trading again, because of financial pressures, an addiction to trading, or because they simply feel that all that testing is unnecessary.

Continue reading "Knowledge and Confusion" »

New NFP Charts

Here are new NFP charts, for Sept. 06 through Nov. 06.

Click here to get the charts.

You have to unzip them to view them.

Continue reading "New NFP Charts" »

NFP: January 5, 2007

It's non farm payroll time again, and here is a chart of the 12 month moving average of the NFP numbers -- the actual numbers released, not the revised numbers:

View image

You'll see that the trend is down as far as released numbers are concerned. ADP reported a negative number, which some analysts think is a forecast for the NFP number.

More analysis coming in a few hours.

Continue reading "NFP: January 5, 2007" »

Subscribe to the blog

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Sponsored Links



New York Traders Expo