I am reading The Black Swan
Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief ... What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday? A lot, perhaps, but certainly a little less than it thinks...
Of course this paragraph assumes that a turkey can think, but if you can suspend your judgment for a moment, you can consider that traders get the same way. There are many traders out there looking for a system with "x percentage of wins," or an average win bigger than the average loss, or that trades a certain number of times, or that has a certain profit factor. And the list goes on. What really matters, in my mind, is that you consider what happens in a worst case scenario. What is your plan for what you will do if a Wednesday-before-Thanksgiving situation occurs? I know we would like to think it won't. But it will.
