Like other curves that I draw, this one isn't really a curve at all.
If you think about what is going on with the Canadian Dollar right now, it's hard to find enough good reasons for the blasted Loonie to keep moving up. It's like Paris Hilton's popularity: it does something amazing/unexpected/vulgar, and all of the sudden it takes on a life of its own. People start buying the CAD (paying attention to Paris) just because other people are doing it. Because it's the thing to do (you can replace "Paris Hilton" or "CAD" with "Carry Trade" anytime you want).
Here's the not-so-curvy curve:
Let's call it the "PH Effect," which is a Paris-Hilton like undeserved fascination that turns into a frenzy. It will all end badly for Paris/Carry Trade/CAD.
UPDATE: I just posted a USD/CAD chart over at the Harry Banes blog.
