Walking Away from an Ugly Trade

Over the next 12 months, it's possible that over a million US residential mortgage-holders are going to walk away from their homes. They're going to walk away from all the payments they have made, from the work they've put into making the house look nice, walk away from everything except (probably) their belongings inside. Why would they do that?

They'll do it because they owe more on the mortgage than the house is worth. They bought at the top of the market, they bought with mortgage rates that have climbed as their incomes have fallen, or simply because they have to move for work or other reasons, and can't sell the house.

Thinking about this today brought to mind bad trades. There is a temptation that I've had in my trading career to walk away from a bad trade. Just let it rip. Walk way from it, push it out of my view, put as much distance between me and the bad decision. I call this Possum trading, and you can read about it in my ebook The Woodchuck and the Possum by clicking here.

I think we are tempted to walk away from a bad trade for understandable reasons (like I've described above). Just because the reasons for walking away from a home underwater, I can see why a trader would prefer to close his eyes to the ugliness of a poor trading decision.

This type of behavior has deep, long term negative consequences. When faced with an ugly trade, it is much better to do any or all of the following:

1. Talk to a trading friend and frankly disclose the entire situation;
2. Calculate how close you are to a margin call;
3. As a person who trades for a living what they would do;
4. Immediately admit that you might need to take the loss, but don't necessarily immediately close the trade;
5. Following up on #4, don't panic;
6. Write down or record your thoughts on a regular (daily or hourly) basis about the experience;
7. Stay present in the situation and face it head-on.

The result may be that you close the trade and take a loss. But you do it with integrity, and you learn from the experience. But there is a chance that if you follow some of these steps, you get yourself out of a tight situation -- with help -- and you turn what could otherwise be an unecessary loss (due to panic) into a positive.

Continue reading "Walking Away from an Ugly Trade" »

The Beginning Trader

Most people who call themselves traders lose money, and you've heard that a thousand times. It's not even interesting to hear people talk about it anymore, although we could all use a dose of that reality more often. It's questionable whether most people who call themselves traders are actually really embarking on a new career as opposed to a hobby. That's a discussion for another time, perhaps.

Tonight, as I was on my flight to Arizona to do a seminar, I thought about some recent "new traders" that I have worked with and known. One is a PhD in organic chemistry. Another is an analyst/researcher at a Wall Street firm. Both are students of mine and I would consider them the best kind of friends in the world.

What impresses me about these "beginning traders" is that they have a fresh, inquisitorial perspective. They are flexible. They are open-minded. They are approaching trading as a new career, with vigor, energy, dedication, responsibility and also generosity (as they share with others that which they have learned). And another thing: neither of them is likely to lose their entire first account. Both of them have been making money, have taken money out of their accounts. Neither of them have had trading experience in the past.

So what makes the difference here? They are beginning traders but they're not psycho-risk-taking crazy gambling currency dudes. Instead, there is something about them that makes a difference.

Right now I can only account for their success (and they are at the beginning, I know) by saying that they are getting the best out of being beginners. This fresh, new, open minded stance they are taking is what creates the very success they are having.

I have a lot more to say about this, and I'd like to hear what you have to say too.

Continue reading "The Beginning Trader" »

The Wisconsin Cheese Index

Do you like “trading the news?” Then the new-news is any news about the bailout. That’s the big news – look for Fed statements, Treasury speeches, and especially a speech by the President which I would assume has to come in the next month. If it doesn’t it will just mean that we’re putting off a statement by the commander in chief of the economy. These statements and speeches will have huge impacts on the RPP’s – the Risk Proxy Pairs:

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY , GBP/CHF, USD/CHF

These are pairs that are prone to move a lot when news hits about the state of the world economy. A lot of risk is bundled up in these pairs: the JPY is all about the carry trade (you think that has gone away, but it hasn't quite yet fully played out); the CHF is about Gold, the world's hedge against inflation (which might not actually be a problem, as we'll be exploring on the radio show this week).

It’s mildly interesting to watch what happens to the US dollar after the Non Farm Payroll report. But what you will see after Trichet of the ECB announces the full extent of the European Economic Problem in April or May – that will make a Non Farm Payroll report look like the Wisconsin Cheese Index, which is a fake report I made up to prove my point. Actually Max made it up, and it’s the greatest fake report ever.

cheese.jpg

Continue reading "The Wisconsin Cheese Index" »

The Bailout

For those of you who live in the United States:

Let's suppose that a national referendum were held next week. You could vote for or against the following proposed action by the US Government:

The US Government will take control of 20 of the 50 largest US regional banks which have become insolvent due to overextension of credit to subprime borrowers. All shareholders in these banks will lose 100% of their investment. The government will keep these banks' doors open. All deposits up to $200,000 (twice the current amount) will be guaranteed. All other deposits above $200,000 will be wiped out.

Would you vote for that?

How serious do you believe the current economic crisis to be?

Let's add one line to the law, and now think about your answer:

In addition to rescuing these banks through nationalization, the US Government will honor severance packages to bank executives who lose their jobs as part of the process; this includes honoring and paying out as much as $50 million to CEOs of these banks.

Now what?

Continue reading "The Bailout" »

What is Crazy Risk? Why does Leverage Matter?

Martin Wolf, in his excellent column for Financial Times, points out that a 15.4% annual return for a hedge fund would be "handsome." How many of you that read this blog would be willing to show up at a trading expo and brag that you had achieved a total return of 15.4% over the last 12 months of your trading?

He then goes on to talk about how a mediocre hedge fund manager can produce such handsome returns in seemingly easy fashion by allowing himself to go deep into debt (leverage) at risk of blowing up the fund. What is this excessive risk? Here's a quote:

Hardly a week goes by without the implosion of a hedge fund. Last week it was Carlyle Capital, with an astonishing $31 of debt for each dollar of equity. But we should not be surprised.

I am not making that up. That's what smart financial people believe to be "astonishing" leverage. 31 to 1. Most currency traders trade with 100:1 leverage.

What makes leverage such a big deal? Why does leverage, in and of itself, present such a problem?

First of all, the availability of high leverage encourages a trader to amass a large trading position, even with a small account. Let's take a trader with a $5,000 account. Let's say that his dealer allows 100:1 leverage. This trader puts up $2,000, and in turn is able to command a $200,000 position in the market. Each pip / point that the position moves for him, he makes $20. If the market moves in his favor 50 points, he's made $1,000. That's nearly enough to make a car payment, buy some groceries, perhaps even make a rent payment (at least in West Virginia, where I live -- it could even pay a mortgage).

This all sounds good so far, right? The trader makes a good trading decision, makes a 10% return in one trade, pays some bills, and moves on. Leverage seems to be the friend of the trader. Where else could this person put $5,000 to work so efficiently, so quickly, with such seemingly easy profits? The stock market? Heck no!

In the stock market, this trader would put $2,000 up -- and then be able to command, at most, a position of $4,000 worth of stock (those are the rules -- you can only trade with 2:1 leverage at most in the stock market). If the market moves 50 points, which is unreal in the stock market (can you imagine GE moving 50 dollars in one day?), the trader is likely to make about $50. No wonder so many people are flying out of stock trading and racing into margin currency trading.

This all sounds good so far. The currency market simply allows for a maximization of profits with a small account.

The problems start when this trader begins to have some losses. Instead of making 50 points and $1,000, he loses 50 points and draws his account down to $4,000. If he has a 70/30 trading system that wins on average 7 times for every 3 losses -- he could experience 1, 2, 3, 4 -- or more -- losses in a row and suddenly be looking at a severe reduction in his trading account. Maybe this trader is disciplined in every other way. Maybe the system is tested. Maybe he's a stable person.

But if he loses just 6 times in a row, he's going to have lost $6,000. Um...that's more than he has in the account. He can't even go more than 5 losses in a row.

The problem isn't that leverage exists or that it is available. It's that most of us, when we start trading, don't realize how fast we can run through our entire accounts. We risk more because we can make more and we end up losing more.

Continue reading "What is Crazy Risk? Why does Leverage Matter?" »

You Have Got to be Kidding Me

For those of you who are unfamiliar with John Meriwether, he's the dude that made a fortune on Wall Street in the 80's in bonds (the securitization of mortgages, as I remember, but I could be wrong) and then went on to co-found and lead Long Term Capital Management. LTCM blew up when the partners, including Nobel-Prize winning economists, failed to appropriately manage their risk and lost $3.6 of their own and investor's money.

It didn't take Meriwether long to start another hedge fund -- in fact, the ink was hardly dry (about a year) on the LTCM rescue deal, when he went out and raised another zillion dollars (ok, it was more like $1 billion) and started running the money again. Keep in mind that if his management fee was 1% of assets, he was pulling in $10 million per year just to open the doors. Where I come from, we have a saying about that much money: holy crap.

Now Meriwether is in trouble again. Bloomberg reports that his fixed-income (bond) fund lost 24% year to date. This is about 10 years after the collapse of LTCM.

I just wanted to mention this, since it might be a good time to bring up the fact that none of us are immune to making the same mistakes twice. None of us learn our lessons so good that we no longer require adult supervision when trading. The same rules of risk apply to you and me, and to John Meriwether, to your forex dealer, to Bear Stearns, and to European Banks (waiting for the other shoe to drop).

When you start thinking that the rules of risk management don't apply to you, that's when risk comes knocking at your door.

NOTE/UPDATE: There are two good books worth reading about all of this and, in particular, John Meriwether. The first is Liar's Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street, Michael Lewis's excellent book about personalities on Wall Street and the City in the 80's, and When Genius Failed, the amazing story of the meteoric rise and stunning fall of one of the world's largest hedge funds. They are worth reading for what they can teach about excessive risk taking and hubris.

Continue reading "You Have Got to be Kidding Me" »

New York Traders Workshop- Day 2

Part of the NYTW presentation has an object lesson using 100 lottery tickets.

Half the fun is buying them!

Watch it all on the video below:

Continue reading "New York Traders Workshop- Day 2" »

New York Traders Workshop

Today we are at the New York Traders Workshop with Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg. It is a fantastic workshop and we wish that everyone could attend

Take a look at the video below for a few pre-conference highlights.

Continue reading "New York Traders Workshop" »

Risking So Much

What is a person attempting to achieve when he risk so much that he gets a margin call?

It happens to hedge funds, major investment banks, prop traders, CEOs, even Governors (in a more personal, but still very similar, way).

Continue reading "Risking So Much" »

Warren Buffett's Annual Letter 2007

Here's the letter:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf

We'll talk about it on the radio show tomorrow.

I read it every year. I'm not sure we (including myself) fully appreciate what a gift it is to have an investor as intelligent as Buffett, with the life experience in investing that he has, write this letter every year and then just publish it to the world.

There are several reasons why I say this:

1. Buffett is patient. He waits for the fat pitch.

2. He has a track record to back up the talk. Some people say "Well, he's really just in the insurance business." The answer is that no, he's not in the insurance business, he's in the business of running insanely great insurance businesses and then using the massive amount of cash flow produced by said business to outright buy other awesome businesses, and stock in other super incredible businesses.

3. He has worked with Charlie Munger for a zillion years. This is his team. They do it together. Buffett gives Munger props all the time; Munger is happy to not be in the spotlight.

4. They invest in what they know.

5. They invest in great managers. I love this focus on great people.

6. They don't overpay. If the deal is too expensive, they walk away. Read this year's letter for a story about that.

7. They share. Buffett committed to give nearly his entire fortune to charity -- and he's still alive.

8. He made a boatload of cash from currency trading. You gotta love that. Read last year's letter to get the inside scoop.

9. He's humble.

I often think about the things that I could do to have gotten into trading at a much earlier age. What I often think about at those times, is that I should have been reading what Buffett wrote a lot sooner, too.

Continue reading "Warren Buffett's Annual Letter 2007" »

A Blog You Shouldn't Miss: ForexProject.com

RP is a dedicated blogger who tells you his real experiences with his real trading life, his successes, failures, bones to pick, books he likes, advice he wish he'd gotten a long time ago (including the time when we were in touch), and I think that overall, it's hard to find a blog that is as well written from the hear about the pains and joys of trading. I jump over there as often as I can, and I always find myself wishing he would write more often.

You can click over to the blog here:

http://www.forexproject.com/

It's worth bookmarking. RP doesn't always say things the way I would say them; he always leaves me better off for having spent the time on his blog.

Continue reading "A Blog You Shouldn't Miss: ForexProject.com" »

The Coolest Chart in the East

Continue reading "The Coolest Chart in the East" »

Free FXStreet.com Webinar

We're doing a free support and resistance webinar on FXStreet.com tomorrow, Tuesday, March 11.

Click here to register for the webinar!

Continue reading "Free FXStreet.com Webinar" »

The NFP All-Nighter: What We Learned

Dave, Eric, Chris, Joshua, and I stayed awake for most of all last night, and broadcast live from TraderRadio.net. The intended (or advertised) purpose was to spend time getting ready to trade the Non Farm Payroll report on Friday morning.

Now, you must know that "trading the news" -- or any fast-paced, emotional, impulsive, speedy trading, for that matter -- is something that I oppose publicly. I think that news-trading is a great way to try to make a lot of money from an unpredictable, volatile market. It's also a way to increase one's expectations without increasing one's skills. For me, it's the epitome of the something-for-nothing attitude that so often pervades the self-help and especially investing How-To Web sites and books.

That said, we thought we'd spend some time looking at short term charts through the night and broadcast live during the entire process to document how it is that a trader could go about getting ready for such a thing as making money from the unpredictable news event of the month, the most influential economic report, and at a time when most currency dealers have poor execution, variable spreads, and overwhelmed customer service.

What we found was interesting: we first of all had a great time, as you can hear for yourself by listening to the archives by clicking here. We had phone calls from successful traders, bank analysts, as well as Boris Schlossberg, who is arguably the most articulate retail forex analyst in the world. We also had phone calls and analysis from a cast of characters that had no business talking about trading: Buford McGill, the man who thinks Ben Bernanke needs a spanking, Frankie and La Earl, Doctor Von Econowitz, and more.

More importantly, we found that some of the best trades can really be taken in the evening hours before the NFP is released -- when the market is easing off of taking positions and settling down before the big shock hits at 8:30 am EST.

Over 2,000 people came to listen overnight. We appreciate all of you who stopped by for a listen.

You can be sure that we'll do it again, and we'll do it bigger and better than ever.

Continue reading "The NFP All-Nighter: What We Learned" »

Radio Show: March 6 NFP Countdown

Rob talks to Dave about previous Trader Radio caller Bufford McGill

   

Continue reading "Radio Show: March 6 NFP Countdown" »

Panic at the Discount Window

Continue reading "Panic at the Discount Window" »

Oil and the Dollar. Yikes!

Continue reading "Oil and the Dollar. Yikes!" »

Respect Your Trading, Respect Yourself

A good friend tonight said, to paraphrase:
"Your trading is an extension of yourself."

If you don't respect your trading, you don't respect yourself. If you play around with lot sizes like you were at a carnival, or if you move between systems like some kind of "trading strategy floozy" then you are just hurting yourself, and the important thing is to get some help for you, for your mind, your heart, your soul, before you look for help with your trading account.

Dave and did a radio show from the New York Trader's Expo, and we talked for an hour about the fact that if we don't get our lives in order, profitable trading might as well be impossible.

Continue reading "Respect Your Trading, Respect Yourself" »

Risk

It is all that matters. Period.

Continue reading "Risk" »

Charlie Munger Said

I was reading some quotes from Charlie Munger tonight. This one struck me.

He said that the ordinary investor "underestimates the number of possible outcomes for unwanted events. Includes underestimating the probability and severity of rare or extreme events."

Here’s what he just said: he said that we tend to ignore that we could blow up our account trading the Non Farm Payroll account. We just simply don’t ever get a grasp on how dangerous and risky trading can be even after a bad trade! We think about how much money we are going to make and we don’t think about what could happen if it all goes wrong. This is what got Long Term Capital Management into trouble in the late 1990s, and it was run by Nobel Prize winners. This is what got Bear, Stearns into trouble in 2007 in the subprime market. And Merrill Lynch. And Morgan Stanley. And UBS. And the list goes on.

Continue reading "Charlie Munger Said" »

Subscribe to the blog

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Sponsored Links



Las Vegas Traders Expo