Warren Buffett's Annual Letter 2007

Here's the letter:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf

We'll talk about it on the radio show tomorrow.

I read it every year. I'm not sure we (including myself) fully appreciate what a gift it is to have an investor as intelligent as Buffett, with the life experience in investing that he has, write this letter every year and then just publish it to the world.

There are several reasons why I say this:

1. Buffett is patient. He waits for the fat pitch.

2. He has a track record to back up the talk. Some people say "Well, he's really just in the insurance business." The answer is that no, he's not in the insurance business, he's in the business of running insanely great insurance businesses and then using the massive amount of cash flow produced by said business to outright buy other awesome businesses, and stock in other super incredible businesses.

3. He has worked with Charlie Munger for a zillion years. This is his team. They do it together. Buffett gives Munger props all the time; Munger is happy to not be in the spotlight.

4. They invest in what they know.

5. They invest in great managers. I love this focus on great people.

6. They don't overpay. If the deal is too expensive, they walk away. Read this year's letter for a story about that.

7. They share. Buffett committed to give nearly his entire fortune to charity -- and he's still alive.

8. He made a boatload of cash from currency trading. You gotta love that. Read last year's letter to get the inside scoop.

9. He's humble.

I often think about the things that I could do to have gotten into trading at a much earlier age. What I often think about at those times, is that I should have been reading what Buffett wrote a lot sooner, too.

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Stocks, Futures and Options Magazine top 10 list.

Adventures of a Currency Trader makes the Stocks, Futures and Options Magazine top 10 list.
Wait a minute...it is Numero Uno! Congrats Rob! --Dave

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The Disciplined Investor

Andrew Horowitz wrote a great book about general investing, and the book includes a lot of insights that I found unique and applicable to anyone who does more than just trade currency. Check it out:

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Forex Simplified

I've been reading a lot of books lately, so you'll be seeing lots of new book reviews here in the next couple of weeks.

If you are a beginner to Forex, here's the single best book I've ever seen for you. It is the best nuts and bolts forex trading book that you can buy if you are just getting started. I met Marilyn in person at the recent Las Vegas Forex Expo, and she's just as engaging in this book as she is in person. Once again, if you're just getting started out in trading currency, this is a perfect book:

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Millionaire Traders on CNBC

Boris Schlossberg was on CNBC today talking about the cool new book he wrote with Kathy Lien. Here's the video:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=513701492

And click here to get the book:

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5 Questions with John Carter

After reading the book, I wrote to John and asked him 5 Questions. Here they are:

You mention on page 77 that you have observed that high frequency forex trader's don't last very long in the markets. Why do you think that is?
By high frequency trading I mean “lots of scalping.” I see this more in the stock index futures where it can work, but when the same strategies are applied to the forex markets the spread tends to eat into all of the profits. To clarify, this is for trades where people are trying to get in and out in less than 5 minutes. What I’ve seen work more consistently in the forex markets are moves off 60 and 120 minute charts that tend to last 30 minutes or more. Also, I think most people who are trying to scalp and do a ton of “little trades” get way too over worked psychologically and this works to their disadvantage. They can make money 10 times in a row but it’s the 11th one where they end up giving it all back and then some.

The book told about a trader who found it helpful in some cases to celebrate a losing trade, or shrugging off a winning trade. Why?
He found that people who did just the opposite tended to lose money – so he wanted to do what “they weren’t doing.” For a losing trade, he looks at is as a good thing because he is protecting his capital. For a winning trade, its not a big deal because his main focus still is on protecting his capital. The idea is by focusing on protecting the capital, the profits tend to take care of themselves.

What's your take on the increase in volatility lately? Has it changed your trading in any way?
As a trader I like the volatility but I have cut my position size in half and doubled the size of my stops so I can stay in the market “wiggles” while still risking the same dollar amount.

Is there one trade in your life that stands out as a major positive or negative experience?
The trade that stands out the most is one I made trading OEX options in the mid 90s. I had a $150,000 account. I had just bought a house and had agreed to a $30,000 down payment, which I would take out of my trading account. About 2 weeks before the closing I decided to “do a trade that would make me 30K” so I could keep the entire 150K in tact. I look at the charts that night and see that the markets are coming up to key resistance. If we can get up to that level the next day I decide I will buy puts.

The next day we get there and I buy 100 OEX puts at $8.00 ($80,000) or just over half my account. The markets chop around here for a bit then push higher. Now the options are priced at $7.00. What a deal! I go ahead and buy 100 more ($70,000) so now my entire account is in this position. The markets close near their highs, which is right near those resistance levels. My options are worth $7.50 so I’m “break even” on the trade as I go to bed. The next morning the markets gap up and never look back.

At this point I start thinking “well lets just let the gap fill and dump my options there for about breakeven.” The markets close near their highs on the day – and keep rallying for 4 days in a row. This was a monster rally. I’ve never really seen a rally since then. I finally can’t take it anymore and close out my position for about 75 cents. I lose $135,000 on the trade – not only wiping out my account but now the money for the down payment has evaporated. It was the “worst nightmare” scenario. I ended up getting advances on my credit cards so I could get the house. Then I spent the next 6 months trying to figure out why I let that happen. I cam across Mark Douglas’s book, “The Disciplined Trader” which I loved and also spent time sitting next to other successful traders. This who journey got me to my current trading philosophy which is setup and money management based instead of “profit” based. This made all the difference in the work for me in terms of consistency.

Your book is done. If you could add one thing to it, or one more piece of advice to traders, what would it be?
Besides the typos and things like that, I would add more emphasis on market internals for anyone trading stock index futures. The setups described in the book for stock indexes are not mechanical and depend entirely on the reading of the market internals (there is a chapter on market internals). I would also add in the concept of “anchor charts.” This means if you are trading off a 5 minute chart, use an “anchor chart” of say 15 minutes. If the 15 minute is bullish (positive moving averages crosses, etc) then on the 5 min chart I’m going to ignore short setups and focus only on the long setups in the direction of the 15 minute charts. This whole concept cuts down on choppy results.

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Kathy Lien's New Blog

Kathy Lien, author of Day Trading the Currency Market, just launched a blog of her own. She'll surely be posting all kinds of good stuff over there, but here are two posts that I've liked so far:

Kathy's Trading Checklist (an an excel file to go along with it)

Is Trading a Man's Game?

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More Blogs than You Can Handle

Cool list of good forex blogs to read. If you like reading blogs about forex, and I think you probably do, then here's the place to go.

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5 Questions with Ed Ponsi

Ed Ponsi's book will be released next week. I've already said on the back cover that I think it's a great book. Ed is honest, an actual trader, and eats what he cooks (in other words, he trades what he teaches). Here's his book:

Yesterday, I spoke with Ed and he answered 5 Questions. One of my favorite interviews.

How did you get started in trading?
I was a stock trader, and I was lucky to start during the mid-90’s, when the market was very forgiving. I used to carry around a quote device, a sort of crude, early version of a PDA. I opened accounts with several online brokers and started placing trades. I had no idea what I was doing, but the bull market would bail me out of my bad trades.

I think the only thing that saved me was that I understood that I really didn’t know what I was doing. I decided that in order to gain a true trading education, I’d have to enter the belly of the beast. Where better to learn than Wall Street? Heck, it was just a few hours away. I began to send out my trading track record and resume to various companies. After a few months, one of them called, and my trading education began in earnest.

What's a favorite trading war story (present or past)?
Initially I had trouble holding on to my winning trades. Back in my days on Wall Street, I was holding a massive equity position when the entire system crashed – not just for me, but for all of the 200 guys in the room. That was the most frightened I had been as a trader up to that point. When the system finally came back on line hours later, I was way up on the trade. I realized that if the system had been working properly, I would’ve gotten out way too soon. After that it became much easier to hold on to my winners.

What hours do you keep for trading?
Over the years I’ve become more long-term oriented. The trends run for such a long time (just look at EUR/JPY or USD/CAD recently) that I feel cheated if I don’t catch a nice chunk of the move. My entries for this type of trading are based on price as opposed to time, so the trades could occur at any time, as long as the entry criteria is met. My trades usually last for at least a couple of days – the exits, like the entries, depend on the price. It doesn’t matter how long it takes to reach the price, or what time of day it happens. I’ve found this type of trading to be less stressful and less labor-intensive, as well as more profitable, than very active short term trading.

Is that you playing the guitar on your Web site?
No, but thanks for noticing! I wanted to go into the studio to record a ‘soundtrack’ for the website, but there just wasn’t enough time. One of my web guys came up with that guitar loop; I think it sounds pretty cool! One of these days I might record a music CD if I ever find the time.

If you could add any one thing to your book (now that it's too late!), what would you add?
It would be just this – anyone can learn to trade successfully; you just need a strong desire to succeed. Education is not a pre-requisite; there are many MBA’s who can analyze the heck out of a balance sheet, but that doesn’t make them successful traders. Intelligence is helpful, but that alone won’t get the job done – in fact, many intelligent people over-analyze trading situations and over-complicate the trading process. But if you really want to learn how to become a successful trader, and you are 100% committed to that goal, then nothing can stop you.

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The Curious Capatlist

Just a quick note today to say that I've been enjoying the archives from Justin Fox's The Curious Capalist blog. Especially I liked the brief entry on The disappointing rewards to college education in the game of Life.

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Your SOL Quotient: The New eBook

If you haven't read it already, here is a link to my new eBook. It's a short version. The longer version is coming very soon.

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Blogs Worth Reading

Not sure why I haven't done this in the past. But here are some blogs I enjoy reading on a regular basis:

http://www.mcginley.biz/

http://www.forexproject.com/

Those are just two and I'll update a few others in the coming days. Rich (forex project) did a cool contest recently where he rewarded the winners with Amazon.com gift certificates.

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Something Worth Reading

Worth reading. Very much so. The best magazine article I have read in a very long time.

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Two eBooks in Persian

Two of my eBooks, "10 Rules" and "Oh, Crap!" have been translated into Persian.

To get 10 Rules in Persian, click here.

To get Oh, Crap! in Persian, click here.

Happy reading!

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High Probability Setups - New Book

There are two books I've read recently that I want to share with you. Tonight I'll talk about the first one -- it's the new eBook from Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg -- and it contains some great trade setups that are worth your time to read and backtest. Here's a link to the book: High Probability Setups Hope you enjoy the book as much as I did!

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Some Good Reading

My wife and I are expecting a baby girl to arrive tomorrow, so I will be out of touch for a few days.

Here are some rules from Dean Carney, a character from Ben Mezrich's wild book, "Ugly Americans". I think you can learn a lot from these rules. I do recommend the book, although I also recommend you skip all the crude parts.

1. Never get into something you can’t get out by the closing bell. Every trade you make, you’re looking for the exit point. Always keep your eye on the exit point.

2. Don’t ever take anything at face value. Because face value is the biggest lie of any market. Nothing is ever priced at its true worth. The key is to figure out the real, intrinsic value — and get it for much, much less.

3. On minute, you have your feet on the ground and you’re moving forward. The next minute, the ground is gone and you’re falling. The key is to never land. Keep it in the air as long as you [freaking] can.

4. You walk into a room with a grenade, and your best-case scenario is walking back out still holding that grenade. Your worst-case scenario is that the grenade explodes, blowing you into little bloody pieces. The moral of the story: don’t make bets with no upside.

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Oh, Crap in Arabic

I have no idea how one says, "Oh, Crap!" in Arabic. But someone else knows. That someone is Shami Ahmed, who kindly translated a second ebook into his native language.

Click here to download Oh, Crap! in Arabic!

I hope you enjoy it.

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Strategy:10 in Arabic

The Strategy:10 ebook is now available in Arabic. Yes, you heard right, in Arabic. Here it is:

Click here to download Strategy:10 in Arabic!

I have no idea if this is a valid translation. I obviously did not write this translation myself. I am excited to have the ebooks available in more languages soon.

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Schlossberg's New Book is Out!

Have you seen Boris Schlossberg's new book, Technical Analysis of the Currency Markets? If you have not read it, you should. It's one of four books I recommend to every currency trader, and it is not like all the other books. There are insights in this book that you simply won't find anywhere else.

Boris is a friend, but that is not why I am recommending it to you. He is the senior strategist at FXCM, he is a brilliant analyst and an accomplished trader in his own right. He practices what he preaches. He knows his stuff. Here's a link to the book:

There is a section on alternative methods for stop losses that is worth the price of the book alone. I hope you'll read it!

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Rob is a Currency Nerd. Here's Proof.

I am now in the process of revising and updating The Currency Trader's Handbook. It's a collection of all of my ebooks on Currency Trading, with new material that I've never released before.

Click here for a free preview of the book.

The book will be available for $9.95 (plus shipping) on Lulu.com starting on January 1. After January 31, the price will go up to $19.95. To receive an update on when the book is released, send me an email by clicking here, with "Rob is a Currency Nerd" in the subject line.

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Kathy Lien's New Book

In short, it's the best book on currency trading available. You can pre-order the book at the link below, and it's worth every pip you pay for it:

Kathy kindly gave me an advance copy yesterday, and I've been amazed. Here is why I think it's worth owning the book:

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5/13/62 Completely Revised

I just re-wrote the 5/13/62 ebook -- completely revised and updated. And funnier, too. Today I will be hosting a chat on fxstreet.com about the updated ebook.

The revision was necessary, so that I could accurately reflect how I think the 62 Exponential Moving Average can be used in trading. I think you'll like the update. Click here to get the ebook.

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